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Stalled hope? The resource conflict risk to Myanmar’s political and economic transition

In 2011, Myanmar's quasi-civilian government initiated one of the most ambitious economic and political transformation campaigns of the last 50 years. The reformist agenda has the potential to steer Myanmar away from insecurity and economic stagnation. But it will be difficult to leverage significant endowments of natural resources to achieve sustainable security, lasting political settlements with ethnic states and economic growth that supports human development. As such, this briefing paper assesses the trajectory and significance of resource conflict risks and threat multipliers in Myanmar.

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The weekly briefing, 27 October 2014: Gunman attacks Canadian parliament, pro-European parties look to have won Ukrainian election, Russia developing underwater combat robots

Political and security risk updates from Open Briefing and Bradburys Global Risk Partners. Gunman attacks Canadian parliament after shooting dead soldier at National War Memorial in Ottawa, pro-European parties look to have won Ukrainian parliamentary election, Russia developing underwater combat robots for use in Arctic, and more.

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Press release: Civil society intelligence agency lifts the lid on Russia’s ‘little green men’

When uniformed irregular forces wearing no insignia moved to control key locations in Crimea in March 2014, few believed the Kremlin’s claim that they were local volunteer self-defence forces. It soon became clear that the men preparing the way for Russia’s annexation of Crimea were from elite Russian military units, including paratroopers and special forces from Russian Airborne Troops. With its origins in the 1930s, Russia’s airborne force is currently the largest and most highly-mechanised in the world. Their presence in Crimea and eastern Ukraine only confirms their status as an elite force within the Russian military.

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Open Briefing launches new intelligence sponsor programme

Open Briefing recognises that private intelligence and risk companies have a great deal to offer the peace and security sector. Companies have access to expertise and resources that would be of significant benefit to Open Briefing’s work on behalf of aid agencies, charities and other civil society organisations. As such, Open Briefing has launched a unique programme of intelligence and capacity-sharing agreements with carefully vetted private intelligence and risk consultancies.

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The weekly briefing, 20 October 2014: Ebola in West Africa, dialogue between North and South Korea, attentions turn to Lebanon

Political and security risk updates from Open Briefing and Bradburys Global Risk Partners. Ebola continues to destabilise a number of West African countries, little progress made in dialogue between North and South Korea, attentions turn to Lebanon in balancing regional sectarian threat, and more.

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Iran: The Ayatollah succession question

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Sayyed Ali Khamenei, recently underwent prostate surgery, following recurrent rumours that he suffers from some form of cancer. The looming succession in Iran is far from straightforward. In this article, Open Briefing contributing analyst Kevjn Lim considers the pool of candidates from which the Supreme Leader's successor may emerge, as well as the possibility of a temporary leadership council or even a Revolutionary Guards-led military takeover.

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The weekly briefing, 13 October 2014: Conflict in Libya intensifies, Minsk summit exposes growing tensions within Commonwealth of Independent States, Suicide bombers target Iraq in weekend of terror attacks

Political and security risk updates from Open Briefing and Bradburys Global Risk Partners. Conflict in Libya intensifies as armed groups pledge support for Islamic State, Minsk summit exposes growing tensions within Commonwealth of Independent States, Suicide bombers target Iraq in weekend of terror attacks, and more.

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