Islamic State has used aerial drones for reconnaissance and battlefield intelligence in Iraq and Syria and has attempted to use aerial and ground drones with explosive payloads to attack Kurdish troops. Should we therefore be concerned about the possibility of Islamic State or another terrorist group using drones to attack Western cities? If so, what should we do to address the threat?
Category: Publications
Remote-control warfare briefing #13, March 2016: The dangers of fully-autonomous weapons, UK government’s draft surveillance legislation challenged, UAE and Saudi Arabia pledge special forces to confront Islamic State
Monthly briefing from the Open Briefing intelligence unit on developments in remote-control warfare. This month: The dangers of fully-autonomous weapons discussed at World Economic Forum for first time; UK government’s draft surveillance legislation threatened by European Court of Human Rights ruling and parliamentary committee criticism; UAE and Saudi Arabia pledge special forces to confront Islamic State and support Syrian armed opposition; and more.
UK actions against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Intelligence briefing #3
UK forces continue to be very active in Iraq, but have also increased offensive operations in Syria. However, the majority of UK airstrikes continue to be opportunist rather than intelligence-led, with targets being both identified and attacked by combat air patrols. The first major UK combat injuries have been reported, raising questions over the true nature and extent of UK ground operations against Islamic State.
Rouhani’s moment of truth
Despite the obvious constraints, elections in Iran - whether for the Assembly of Experts, the presidency, the parliament, or even the regional municipalities - can still tell observers a lot. And they also matter; they can be the difference between the slow wearing down of the hardliners’ outsized control or the further consolidation of power in their hands. This Open Briefing article for Foreign Affairs explores how the coming Assembly of Experts vote could shape Iran's future.
UK actions against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria: Intelligence briefing #2
On 2 December, the UK parliament voted in favour of authorising airstrikes against Islamic State in Syria. The RAF has since targeted well heads within the Omar oil field in Syria and undertaken multiple missions around Raqqa. A key issue in the build-up to the vote was the risk posed to innocent civilians in the areas of Iraq and Syria targeted by the RAF. Claims by the government and Ministry of Defence that there is no evidence of civilian casualties from UK military action against Islamic State do not stand up to scrutiny.
Hostile drones: Supplementary risk assessment
This briefing is provided as a supplement to the Open Briefing/Remote Control Project report Hostile drones: The hostile use of drones by non-state actors against civilian targets. Our findings are based on a risk assessment involving 270 individual likelihood/impact judgements taking into account the type of threat group, the type of unmanned vehicle, the theatre, the nature of the threat and the target.
Hostile drones: The hostile use of drones by non-state actors against British targets
In this groundbreaking report for the Remote Control project, Open Briefing has analysed over 200 commercially-available drones and assessed known drone use by non-state groups, including terrorist organisations, insurgent groups, organised crime groups, corporations and activists. The report sets out a series of recommendations to mitigate the threat from the hostile use of drones, including specific regulatory, passive and active countermeasures.
Transnational organised crime monthly briefing: Islamic State’s income from transnational organised crime
Islamic State is the richest terrorist group in the world, with an estimated annual turnover of between $2 billion and $3 billion. The groups control over substantial territory allows it to generate considerable amounts of money from organised crime, including the smuggling of oil and antiquities and taxing those smuggling drugs and people, as well the through levying taxes and fines on the populations of the areas it controls.
