Open Briefing: An Israeli strike against Iran is highly unlikely between the US presidential elections in November 2012 and the Israeli elections in January 2013, and unlikely between January and the Iranian presidential elections in June 2013.
Category: Intelligence briefings
Intelligence brief: Will the United States or the United Kingdom play a role in supporting any Israeli military strike against Iran in the six months following the 2012 US presidential election?
Open Briefing: The United States and Britain are unlikely to support any Israeli strike against Iran in the first six months following the November 2012 US presidential election. This will likely remain the case regardless of who wins the election.
Dossier: Domestic drivers of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands confrontation
Open Briefing: Our analysis of the domestic drivers of and constraints on the various parties in the recurring Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands confrontation reveals they do not lock in armed conflict but, instead, support considerable diplomatic flexibility.
Intelligence brief: The security situation for UN and INGO staff in South Sudan
Open Briefing: The recent agreements between Sudan and South Sudan will take some time to have an impact on the ground and the security threats to UN and INGO staff will, therefore, continue for at least six to 12 months.
Intelligence brief: Russia forward deploys advanced MiG-31BM “Foxhound” interceptors to Arctic base on Novaya Zemlya Island
Open Briefing: Russia has forward deployed a squadron of MiG-31BM “Foxhounds” (a two-seat, long-range, supersonic, all-weather interceptor aircraft) to Rogachevo Arctic Airbase off the northern coast of Russia.
Intelligence brief: Preliminary analysis of the “Austin Tice still alive” video
Open Briefing: A video purportedly showing missing freelance journalist Austin Tice has been posted on YouTube. Our analysis concludes that this is Tice but irregularities suggest the video might have been staged by Syrian government forces.
Dossier: The prospects for peace in Thailand’s deep south
This Open Briefing dossier explores the roots of the slow burning Malay Muslim insurgency in Thailand's deep south and the complicated challenge it poses the country's Prime Minister, Yingluck Shinawatra.
Dossier: China, the Philippines and the Scarborough Shoal
The April/May 2012 standoff between China and the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal went beyond the normal, periodic disputes that are part and parcel of the South China Sea ...
