Open Briefing: It is highly likely that missing US journalist Austin Tice was captured by Syrian military forces and, if still alive, is likely still in government custody. However, it is impossible to assess with any confidence his current location or condition.
Category: Intelligence desks
Intelligence brief: What is the probability of an Israeli strike against Iran in the six months following the 2012 US presidential election?
Open Briefing: An Israeli strike against Iran is highly unlikely between the US presidential elections in November 2012 and the Israeli elections in January 2013, and unlikely between January and the Iranian presidential elections in June 2013.
Intelligence brief: Will the United States or the United Kingdom play a role in supporting any Israeli military strike against Iran in the six months following the 2012 US presidential election?
Open Briefing: The United States and Britain are unlikely to support any Israeli strike against Iran in the first six months following the November 2012 US presidential election. This will likely remain the case regardless of who wins the election.
Dossier: Domestic drivers of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands confrontation
Open Briefing: Our analysis of the domestic drivers of and constraints on the various parties in the recurring Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands confrontation reveals they do not lock in armed conflict but, instead, support considerable diplomatic flexibility.
Pakistan’s disappearing Hindus
Open Briefing: The political system works against minorities in Pakistan, dovetailing wealth, power and sectarianism. While Pakistan's Hindus feel the effects keenly, their elites have adjusted to the political apparatus rather than challenging it.
Looking at Afghanistan beyond 2014
Open Briefing: The intensification of militant violence in Afghanistan comes at a time when ISAF/NATO forces are facing a crisis of confidence at home and abroad, with key recent developments eroding the credibility of Western forces in Afghanistan itself.
The Sinai Peninsula: Egypt’s Waziristan?
Open Briefing: A spate of attacks in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula have drawn overly simplistic media comparisons to Waziristan. However, an analysis of the intentions of the stakeholders in Sinai paints a different, and more complex, picture.
Intelligence brief: The security situation for UN and INGO staff in South Sudan
Open Briefing: The recent agreements between Sudan and South Sudan will take some time to have an impact on the ground and the security threats to UN and INGO staff will, therefore, continue for at least six to 12 months.
