Open Briefing: It is highly likely that missing US journalist Austin Tice was captured by Syrian military forces and, if still alive, is likely still in government custody. However, it is impossible to assess with any confidence his current location or condition.
Category: Middle East and North Africa
Intelligence brief: What is the probability of an Israeli strike against Iran in the six months following the 2012 US presidential election?
Open Briefing: An Israeli strike against Iran is highly unlikely between the US presidential elections in November 2012 and the Israeli elections in January 2013, and unlikely between January and the Iranian presidential elections in June 2013.
Intelligence brief: Will the United States or the United Kingdom play a role in supporting any Israeli military strike against Iran in the six months following the 2012 US presidential election?
Open Briefing: The United States and Britain are unlikely to support any Israeli strike against Iran in the first six months following the November 2012 US presidential election. This will likely remain the case regardless of who wins the election.
Looking at Afghanistan beyond 2014
Open Briefing: The intensification of militant violence in Afghanistan comes at a time when ISAF/NATO forces are facing a crisis of confidence at home and abroad, with key recent developments eroding the credibility of Western forces in Afghanistan itself.
The Sinai Peninsula: Egypt’s Waziristan?
Open Briefing: A spate of attacks in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula have drawn overly simplistic media comparisons to Waziristan. However, an analysis of the intentions of the stakeholders in Sinai paints a different, and more complex, picture.
Intelligence brief: Preliminary analysis of the “Austin Tice still alive” video
Open Briefing: A video purportedly showing missing freelance journalist Austin Tice has been posted on YouTube. Our analysis concludes that this is Tice but irregularities suggest the video might have been staged by Syrian government forces.
Iran’s secret weapon
This article from Open Briefing argues that Israel is unlikely to cease targeting human assets linked to Iran's nuclear programme, while Iran and its affiliates are equally unlikely to desist from hurting Jewish interests and Israeli citizens worldwide.
Dossier: Iran, Israel and the consequences of military strikes
Tensions between Iran and key Western governments and Israel are entering singularly dangerous straits and the consequences of military strikes would be far reaching and serious ...